Abwehr The Demiurge | Canaris The Gardener | Open Letter to the World Leaders

“The World is silent and confused. The World needs to understand. The World needs to investigate… 
To prevent the mistakes of the Past, just the memory of them is not enough; the deep, comprehensive, definitive understanding and analysis are needed. The genre of parody and the reality show is not the best mode of this historical understanding, the dispassionate scientific approach should be more productive.” 
Operations “Trump Card”, “Call 9/11”, and “MuckCart-hy” – By Michael Novakhov

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The Operation Trump Card

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The three party leaders of Germany’s coalition government agreed late Tuesday to reassign the country’s chief domestic spy after he made controversial remarks about videos from last month’s riots in Chemnitz.
Hans-Georg Maassen, the head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, known by its German acronym BfV, will now become a high-ranking official inside the German interior ministry. The change in roles comes with a higher pay grade, according to German media.
A replacement for his post at the BfV has not been named. “Details to the relative responsibilities within the Ministry for the Interior, Construction and Homeland will be presented by Interior Minister Horst Seehofer [Wednesday],” the government said.
The BfV monitors extremist organizations that threaten Germany’s democratic institutions and Mr. Maassen put himself in the coalition’s crosshairs by calling into question the authenticity of videos from anti-immigrant riots that arose after the fatal stabbing of a man in Chemnitz. He has also reportedly slipped BfV intelligence to the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Coalition coalescence

Politicians first met last Thursday to discuss Mr. Maassen’s fate but then delayed their decision until Tuesday. German media presented the tussle as another trial for the country’s governing coalition with the left-leaning Social Democrats, or SPD, demanding his resignation and Interior Minister Seehofer saying he had faith in the official. The SPD is part of the governing coalition and Mr. Seehofer is a member of the Christian Socialist Union, or CSU, a conservative Bavarian party allied with Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats, and also part of the coalition government.
Nobody appeared happy with the compromise. Left-leaning politicians wanted Mr. Maassen to wake up unemployed on Wednesday, whereas more conservative lawmakers insisted he did nothing wrong.
“That is unbelievable deception,” Katrin Göring-Eckardt, head of the Green party, was quoted as saying by local daily, Die Welt. Anyone who rewards instead of punishing someone who “cuddles” up to the AfD has lost all decency. “And the SPD plays along with everything,“ she said.
The head of parliament’s interior committee and a member of the CSU, Andrea Lindholz, defended Mr. Maassen, saying it was “regrettable” he had to leave his position because of what she described as a communication error. “Today I still have complete faith in the head of the BfV, after detailed explanations [about what he said], just as I did before them,” she said.
Andrew Bulkeley is an editor in Berlin for Handelsblatt Global. To contact the author: a.bulkeley@handelsblattgroup.com

Horst Seehofer has accomplished a number of feats in his long political career, but he could hardly be thought capable of defying the law of gravity. Until now. Mr. Seehofer could not prevent the dismissal of his confidant Hans-Georg Maassen, but he could prevent Mr. Maassen’s fall. The supposed victim skated away from his previous function as president of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution to the top levels of the interior ministry. He was spared a hard landing into temporary retirement.
Mr. Seehofer emphasized that Mr. Maassen has rendered considerable service to the country, especially in the fight against terrorism. But you don’t have to question that to maintain that Mr. Maassen has undermined confidence in himself and his authority over the past two weeks. If the head of the domestic intelligence service is unsettling the public with crass speculation, nobody should be surprised if the next terror alert isn’t taken seriously. Mr. Maassen’s behavior after the neo-Nazi riots in Chemnitz was the reason for his dismissal. The reward: promotion to state secretary and 20 percent more salary.
As right as the criticism of Mr. Maassen is, it would be wrong to reduce the so-called Causa Maassen to the person Maassen. Germany’s highest domestic spy may like to put himself into the middle of things with his interviews, but in the end he is a marginal figure. The chancellor has recently pointed out that the coalition “will not break up over the head of a subsidiary agency.” That’s true. At the same time, however, Angela Merkel has covered up what her cabinet could very well break up over: its internal contradictions and unresolved power issues. The grand coalition is made up of a Social Democratic party that is willing to govern only under certain conditions and a center-right alliance that has limited powers to govern. The result: a scary equilibrium with two existential crises in six months.

It is no coincidence that the controversies are taking place in the interior ministry. Under Mr. Seehofer’s leadership, something like an opposition cabinet is being formed there. In his future role as state secretary for security, Mr. Maassen will meet his old friend Dieter Romann, the head of the federal police, with whom he shares a vehement rejection of the chancellor’s refugee policy. Given this lineup, one thing is certain: There won’t be less conflict in Ms. Merkel’s coalition in crisis.
The chancellor’s main problem, however, is Mr. Seehofer, who never intended to go along with her authority to determine refugee policy. When he talks about a reversal in asylum policy, he isn’t only referring to the usual revisions showing the imprint of a new minister over time. He means the humiliation of his rival. Government policy is characterized by a stalemate between Ms. Merkel and Mr. Seehofer. That is their plight. There is a balance of power which is actually a balance of weakness. Mr. Seehofer is badly hit after his party’s losses in last year’s national elections. He lacks the strength to overthrow the chancellor. But Ms. Merkel, too, is no longer strong enough to get rid of her opponent.
Merkel camp counting on CSU losses in Bavaria
The result is a continuation of the ongoing conflict over refugee policy. Ms. Merkel is playing for time. Her camp is counting on the Seehofer problem resolving itself after the state elections in Bavaria. A historical defeat for the CSU is emerging there, and many will blame party leader Mr. Seehofer for it. But what follows from this is completely open. Even if the CSU were to send a new minister to Berlin, the fundamental ideological dispute remains as to whether the two sister parties – Ms. Merkel’s CDU and Mr. Seehofer’s CSU – should remain anchored in the political center or in the conservative spectrum. That is precisely what refugee policy is ultimately about.
Between the CDU/CSU fronts stands the SPD, which actually wanted to position Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz as an alternative to Merkel and suddenly appears as the chancellor’s protective guard. The Social Democrats are absorbing most of the outrage at the leadership shuffle in Mr. Seehofer’s giant ministry. Instead of celebrating the successes of their government work – the law for better daycare centers that has just been passed, or the reduction in contributions to unemployment insurance, for example – the SPD can be worn down as a buffer party. No miracle that the coalition opponents feel confirmed. The discontent of the base can quickly turn into revolt.
It’s been nearly forgotten in the meantime that the coalition agreement carries the heading “A new departure for Europe.” The hope was that a Franco-German tandem would lead Europe through uncertain times. Six months later, hardly anyone in Berlin has noticed that the reform president, Emmanuel Macron, is in serious trouble. While the German government is self-absorbed, a historic opportunity is passing. Europe’s opponents, both internal and external, are gleefully anticipating the worst.
To contact the author: koch@handelsblatt.com

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D emokratien the party democracy is in crisis. That’s how it sounds for many months now. And then we look around – and what do we see? For a long time now, politics has been as alive as it is today.

Rainer Hank
Responsible editor for economics and “Money & More” of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

Or Should not the fall of the CDU chief strategist and confidant Merkel Volker Kauder on the open stage be Described as a success of party democracy? That may not quite have Shakespearean features, but it would be enough for an evening on the studio stage. Have the Umstürzler agreed? Is Ralph Brinkhausthe schemer who plays the naive? Or is there a ringleader behind him? And what this prelude to the overthrow of the Chancellor, for which, of course, the theatrical machines would have to be a real big spectacle of it?
But no, the cancellation of Kauders is a “great moment of democracy,” they all say now, led by the Chancellor. The deselection Kauders should be a moment of glory, while the arrival of the AfD in the Bundestag by the same people is denounced as decay of democracy. Here is measured with two different measures. The vote of no confidence against Merkel’s man at the top of the political group should be a democratic masterpiece. The vote of no confidence of the AfD (and its voters) against the established parties, on the other hand, is regarded as pure populism and is therefore dangerous. We do not complain. Since finally something has been going on in German politics for years. And those who do not like that say that democracy is in trouble. Conversely, a shoe becomes out of it.
Wettbewerb belebt das Geschäft, wissen nicht nur die Handelsleute, die freilich gerade deshalb am liebsten den Handel abschaffen oder protektionistisch beschränken wollen. Offenkundig gibt es Bürger in Deutschland, die der Meinung sind, man habe sie – warum auch immer – politisch vergessen. Und nun findet sich eine Partei, die ihnen eine Stimme gibt, diese aber nicht etwa – oder nicht nur – als außerparlamentarische Opposition auf den Straßen und Plätzen des Landes erhebt, sondern ihre Ziele repräsentativ parlamentarisiert: als Opposition im Deutschen Bundestag mit seinem ganzen schwerfälligen Antrags- und Ausschusswesen. Das wird als Populismus geschmäht, anstatt es als Belebung des Parlamentarismus zu feiern.

Dank der AfD steigt die Wahlbeteiligung

John Stuart Mill, perhaps the greatest liberal thinker of the 19th century, saw two dangers to democracy: he called them the “dictatorship of the majority” and the “dictatorship of habit.” The dictatorship of the majority is today another word for the institutionalization of political alternatives, called the grand coalition. Dictatorship of habit is another word for the stagnation of a state that could at some point stifle its expendable spending. Let’s call the New Myself Populists – but they enliven democracy. It has not been as exciting in the Bundestag for a long time since the AFD was sitting there. Before, it was always said that the democratic discourse had shifted from parliaments to talk shows.

Angela Merkel wants to become party leader again. Whether this will happen is uncertain: Before the party congress, people will vote in Bavaria and Hesse. This can completely change the situation in the CDU.
Actually everything should be clear now. Angela Merkel has made it clear that she wants to be re-elected CDU chairman at the next congress. In the past, applause would have jump up in the union – the confirmation in office would have been only a formality. But on Friday it remains surprisingly quiet in the CDU . The best word was the conservative union of values. But their boss did not applaud – he demanded the withdrawal of Merkel.
Things have started to slide in the CDU. Only the chancellor left the feeling in the Maaus causality, then in the election of the Union faction leader. Two such mistakes in a row Merkel have not happened in their entire term. The situation has become so critical for the head of the CDU that she was now forced to reaffirm her candidacy. Merkel is thus trying to end the debate on a change of leadership in the party before she really gets going. So far, only a simple Berlin CDU member has announced plans to compete against Merkel. But who knows what the next few weeks would have been if the chairman had not taken a stake as a precautionary measure?
Doch trotz Merkels Ankündigung ist noch nicht sicher, dass sie auf dem Parteitag im Dezember auch tatsächlich antritt. Denn niemand weiß, wie die christdemokratische Welt nach den beiden Landtagswahlen im Oktober aussehen wird.
Klar ist bisher nur, dass das bayerische Ergebnis Merkel in keinem Fall Freude bereiten wird. Entweder erreicht die CSU wider Erwarten doch noch ein akzeptables Ergebnis – dann werden die Christsozialen dermaßen breitbeinig auftreten, dass sogar Uli Hoeneß im Vergleich dazu wie ein Sänftling erscheinen wird. Oder die CSU verliert so deutlich, wie es die Umfragen erwarten lassen. Dann wird die CSU nach Sündenböcken suchen, und dabei auch Angela Merkel finden.
Zwei Wochen nach den Bayern wählen dann auch die Hessen. Die CDU steht in dem Land derzeit zehn Prozentpunkte unter dem Ergebnis der letzten Landtagswahl. Bereits das ist für die CDU ein Fiasko. Wenn Volker Bouffier sogar die Staatskanzlei verlieren sollte, würde das gewaltige Schockwellen auslösen – die vor allem Merkel erschüttern würden.

Kein realistisches Szenario, in dem jemand anderes die Mehrheit im Bundestag hinter sich vereinen kann

Als Kanzlerin ist Merkel zwar immer noch in einer kommoden Lage. Sie kann nur durch ein konstruktives Misstrauensvotum aus dem Amt gehoben werden. Es gibt aber kein realistisches Szenario, in dem jemand anderes die Mehrheit im Bundestag hinter sich vereinen kann. Derlei würde schon die SPD verhindern, die keinem anderen CDU-Politiker vor Neuwahlen zur Kanzlerschaft verhelfen wird.

Als CDU-Chefin wird Merkel jedoch nicht durch Vorgaben des Grundgesetzes geschützt. Wenn die Delegierten Lust auf einen Wechsel verspüren, können sie sich einfach eine neue Führung wählen – so wie es die Unionsfraktion am Dienstag getan hat.
Before the election, Merkel has long been tormented by the question of whether she should continue. For this reason, she will also check very carefully after the state elections whether the CDU will still be wearing her – or whether she would rather present her successor to her party. That would actually be the beginning of the end of the era Merkel.