Nobody knows how Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine will end, but most scenarios range from bad to worse. To grasp them, start by considering what is indubitably the world’s most notorious rat.

That’s the one Russian President Vladimir Putin claims he once – as a boy in what was then Leningrad – chased down a hallway. Cornered, the rat turned and attacked him.xc2xa0

Why has Putin made sure that this anecdote keeps getting recycled among Russia watchers the world over? The conventional wisdom is that it’s yet another of his veiled threats. I’m that rat, except that I have nuclear claws, he implies. So don’t corner me.

This vantage point – let’s call it the rat’s-eye view – must factor in all possible scenarios. If the analysis were about what’s good for Russia, the invasion would never have started at all, and could be ended at any time with a negotiated settlement. After all, the attack has only hurt national interests, by isolating the country internationally and impoverishing more of its population. But Russia isn’t the relevant actor. The metaphorical rat in the Kremlin is. xc2xa0

By all appearances, Putin is nowadays isolated and in his own mental world. Unlike his Soviet predecessors, he has no politburo around him or other credible checks and balances; he decides alone. And like other current and former tyrants – Saddam Hussein springs to mind – he has reason to worry that his own political failure is less likely to end in a tedious but placid retirement than in something rather more violent and abrupt.xc2xa0

Viewed from the rat’s perspective, therefore, there are lots of dead-end hallways around. With that in mind, the scenarios look as follows.