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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24 – Kyiv Post

Important Takeaways

  • The Russian navy carried out one more set of substantial, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian vital infrastructure.
  • Russian politicians continue to promote brazenly genocidal rhetoric versus Ukraine.
  • The Kremlin carries on to go after its maximalist ambitions and is possible issuing imprecise statements about its intent to mislead Western International locations into pressuring Ukraine into negotiations.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive functions in the directions of Kreminna and Svatove.
  • Russian forces continued offensive functions close to Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
  • Russian forces ongoing defensive operations on the east (left) lender of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
  • The Kremlin is continuing crypto-mobilization initiatives at the expense of other Russian security companies.
  • Russian forces and occupation officers continued to forcibly relocate inhabitants and confiscate their residence.

The Russian armed service performed yet another set of huge, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided attempt to degrade the Ukrainian will to struggle. Ukrainian Air Power Command noted on November 23 that Russian forces released 70 cruise missiles and 5 drones at Ukrainian important infrastructure targets. Ukrainian Air Force Command described that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 51 of the Russian cruise missiles and all five drones. The Ukrainian Common Team noted that Russian forces struck household structures, thermal electricity plants, and substations in the city of Kyiv as nicely as in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Zaporizhia oblasts. Ukrainian, Russian, and social media sources claimed that Russian forces also struck targets in Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv oblasts. Ukrainian officers reported common disruptions to electricity, heating, and h2o materials as a result of the Russian strikes. ISW has beforehand assessed that the Russian armed forces is nonetheless ready to attack Ukrainian critical infrastructure at scale in the around phrase inspite of continuing to deplete its arsenal of substantial-precision weapons systems. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar mentioned that the Russian military services mistakenly thinks that the destruction of electrical power infrastructure will direct Ukrainian attempts to safeguard rear parts and divert Ukrainian interest away from the front in eastern and southern Ukraine. Malyar said that Russia’s campaign in opposition to crucial infrastructure will not weaken the inspiration of Ukraine’s civilian population, and the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov asserted that Russian missile and drone strikes will not coerce Ukraine into negotiations.

Popular Russian politicians keep on to endorse overtly genocidal rhetoric in opposition to Ukraine. Moscow Town Duma Deputy and professional-Kremlin journalist Andrey Medvedev posted a very long rant to his Telegram channel on November 23 wherein he categorically denied the existence of the Ukrainian country, relegating Ukrainian id to a “political orientation.” Medvedev identified as Ukraine a pagan cult of death that worships prisoner executions and named for the overall “liquidation of Ukrainian statehood in its present kind.”This rhetoric is brazenly exterminatory and dehumanizing and phone calls for the conduct of a genocidal war towards the Ukrainian point out and its people, which notably has pervaded discourse in the optimum concentrations of the Russian political mainstream. As ISW has beforehand described, Russian President Vladimir Putin has likewise utilized this sort of genocidal language in a way that is essentially incompatible with calls for negotiations.

The Kremlin has not backed down from its maximalist aims of regaining management of Ukraine but is alternatively partly obfuscating Russia’s aims to mislead Western international locations into pressuring Ukraine to sue for peace. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on November 21 that changing the recent government in Ukraine is not a objective of the Russian “special armed forces operation” in Ukraine, observing that Russian President Vladimir Putin “has previously spoken about this.” Putin experienced mentioned on Oct 26 that Ukraine has “lost its sovereignty” and occur totally below NATO’s manage. Putin’s speech at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 27 once again rejected Ukraine’s sovereignty, noting that Russia “created” Ukraine and that the “single true assurance of Ukrainian sovereignty” can only be Russia. Putin has also persistently upheld his speaking stage that Ukraine is a Nazi state that need to be “denazified.” Putin’s calls for quantity to a prerequisite for routine change in Kyiv even if he does not explicitly simply call for it in these current statements. The fact that Peskov refers again to these remarks by Putin can make looking at any significant walking-again of Russian aims into Peskov’s feedback hugely doubtful.

The Kremlin’s obfuscation of its aims possible meant for a Western audience is yet perplexing Russian war supporters. Peskov’s assertion likely aimed to mitigate the effects of Vice-Speaker of the Russian Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev’s pro-war rant declaring that Russia can only normalize relations with Ukraine following the capitulation of the Ukrainian government. The two contrasting statements confused the professional-war community. A Wagner Team-affiliated milblogger sarcastically noticed that Russia is aimlessly combating a war with no a clear intention in reaction to Peskov’s statement. ISW has reported on comparable reactions to the Kremlin’s decision to exchange Ukrainian prisoners of war from Mariupol, whom Kremlin officials and propagandists vilified as “Nazis” and ”war criminals.”

The Kremlin’s hesitance to publicly commit absolutely to an serious nationalist ideology and to the war is also bewildering propagandists who preach this sort of ideology to the Russian masses. Russian political and military services “experts” on a Russian state Tv demonstrate pushed again towards Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov’s claim that Kherson Oblast is thoroughly Russian, which would justify the use of nuclear weapons. The “experts” mentioned that the use of nuclear weapons to defend territory that is not thoroughly occupied is irrational and even explained that NATO poses no danger to Russia. Russian propagandists have been creating outlandish nuclear threats and accusing NATO of preparing to attack Russia in the course of Putin’s regime and particularly ahead of and throughout the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine such dismissal of typical Kremlin conversing factors in this sort of a forum is unparalleled. ISW has also earlier documented that Russian extraordinary nationalist ideologist Alexander Dugin accused Putin of not totally committing to the professional-war ideology. Putin has generally sought to equilibrium severe nationalist talking factors to get assist from the nationalist-leaning local community and a much more average narrative to keep the aid of the relaxation of the Russian populace. Russian armed service failures and the rising sacrifices Putin is demanding of the Russian individuals to carry on his disastrous invasion are bringing his deliberate obfuscation of war aims and attempts to balance rhetorically into sharp reduction, potentially fueling discontent within important

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Arab fan support key for Tunisia vs. Australia at World Cup

DOHA, Qatar (AP) — Expect “TUN-is, TUN-is, TUN-is” chants to reverberete around the Al Janoub stadium as Tunisia enjoys overwhelming home-like support when it takes on Australia in each team’s second match at the World Cup on Saturday.

One of the four Arab teams at the first World Cup in the Middle East, Tunisia had arguably the loudest set of fans in the first round of games when it held European Championship semifinalist Denmark to a 0-0 draw.

And the support isn’t just from Tunisians. Fans waving Palestinian flags have been following Tunisia, and there are also supporters of the squad from Egypt and Algeria.

Tunisia’s team bus was mobbed by red-clad fans upon arrival in Qatar last week.

“We know the value of our Tunisian supporters in Doha, and the Tunisian diaspora,” coach Jalel Kadri said. “This gives us a strong morale boost.”

Both teams will have higher expectations, after Australia was beat 4-1 by defending champion France in its Group D opener.

All four of France’s goals came from attacks down the flanks, with three of them headed in.

“Conceding three goals from wide areas is obviously a very clear lesson for us to learn,” Australia midfielder Jackson Irvine said. “We obviously have to deal with the crosses better.”

France leads the group with three points, Tunisia and Denmark are next with one point each and Australia trails with none.

Tunisia is seeking to advance from the group stage for the first time in its sixth World Cup appearance, while Australia has only reached the last 16 once — in 2006 — in five previous trips to soccer’s biggest event.

“There’s a bit more pressure because Australia have nothing to lose now. It’s like a final for them,” Tunisia defender Mohamed Dräger said. “We need to be ready like (Tuesday). With the same spirit and the same concentration we can achieve something.”

Tunisia’s spirit is embodied by combative midfielder Aïssa Laïdouni, who earned player of the match honors against Denmark in his first career World Cup match.

Laïdouni set the tone in the very first minute when he stripped Denmark playmaker Christian Eriksen of the ball with an aggressive sliding tackle — then stood up and pumped his arms menacingly, gesturing to the crowd to get even more fired up.

“It’s important to come at the game with a lot of determination,” Laïdouni said. “This is World Cup, it’s not a small competition. … It’s also important to show (the fans) we are so determined.”

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Andrew Dampf is at https://twitter.com/AndrewDampf

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AP World Cup coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/world-cup and https://twitter.com/AP_Sports

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Kyiv Post Morning Memo – Everything You Need to Know on Friday, Nov. 25

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Good morning from a very foggy Kyiv where the damage to civilian infrastructure caused by Russia’s latest mass missile attack on Wednesday continues to cause major disruption both here and across the rest of Ukraine.

What’s happening today?

Today’s priority is the continuing repair work to the water and electricity supplies in towns and cities across the country. The situation remains grim, with winter setting in and temperatures in the capital hovering just above freezing. 

Yet despite the bleak conditions, Ukraine remains defiant. In a BBC interview with Olena Zelenska on Wednesday, the Ukrainian first lady said: “We are ready to endure this.”

“We’ve had so many terrible challenges, seen so many victims, so much destruction, that blackouts are not the worst thing to happen to us.”

You can read more about the current power situation here (LINK TO EXPLAINER)

What has Zelensky said?

In his daily address on Thursday evening, President Zelensky acknowledged the “difficult” situation Ukrainians are currently facing, adding: “Special attention is being paid to the communication system. No matter what the terrorists are planning, we have to preserve communication.”

On Russia’s continuing tactic of bombarding cities from afar, Zelensky said this was because they “do not know how to fight.” 

He added: “The only thing they can still do is terrorize. Either energy terror, artillery terror or missile terror – that’s all that Russia has degraded to under its current leaders.”

Any other news I need to know about?

Of course, here’s a roundup of the morning’s top stories:

What’s the situation on the front lines? 

In its Nov. 25 Intelligence Update, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) focuses on the experiences of mobilized Russian reservists, outlining a number of serious problems they face and the massive casualties they’re suffering, as well as the political risk this situation poses to the Kremlin.

The MoD says: “In Donetsk Oblast, reservists have been killed in large numbers in frontal assaults into well-established Ukrainian defensive zones around the town of Bakhmut.

“The Kremlin will likely be concerned that an increasing number of reservists’ families are prepared to risk arrest by protesting against the conditions their relatives are serving under.”

And that’s it for today’s Morning Memo. Kyiv Post will bring you the latest news throughout the day and we’ll be back with another edition tomorrow.

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EXPLAINED: Grim State of Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure This Morning

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Ukraine is still battling to restore water and power to millions of its citizens after Russia’s latest mass missile strike on civilian infrastructure on Wednesday, Nov. 23 battered an already crippled electricity grid.

The situation is a grim one right across the entire country with winter setting in and temperatures in the capital of Kyiv hovering just above freezing.

Such is the scale of the power outages that their effects are clearly visible from space.

“The situation with electricity remains difficult in almost all regions,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on the evening of Thursday, Nov. 24. “However, we are gradually moving away from blackouts — every hour we return power to new consumers.”

Kyiv

More than 24 hours after Russian strikes smashed Kyiv, mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said late Thursday that 60 percent of homes in the capital were still suffering emergency outages.

Water services had been fully restored however, city officials said. But the shelling had killed seven people at Vyshgorod, on the outskirts of the capital, said Oleksiy Kuleba, head of the Kyiv Regional Military Administration.

Khmelnytsky

The western region of Khmelnytsky was one of the worst affected by power outages, with just 35 percent of its normal capacity, but that was enough to connect critical infrastructure, according to Serhiy Hamaliy, the head of the regional administration.

Kherson

The recently-liberated southern city of Kherson has been largely without power and water since Russian forces destroyed critical infrastructure when they were forced to retreat earlier this month.

Residents also now face a new threat – shelling from the Russian army in its new positions on the other side of the Dnipro River. A fresh round of strikes Thursday killed at least four people, a senior official there said.

Kharkiv

About 300,000 residents in the eastern Kharkiv region, near the border with Russia, were still without power on Thursday evening, but electricity supply had been restored for nearly 70 percent of consumers, AFP reports.

“We’ve restarted power supplies,” said Ihor Terekhov, mayor of Kharkiv city, adding that water was being restored to homes and municipal workers were reconnecting public transport.

“Believe me, it was very difficult.”

Nuclear power stations

Wednesday’s attacks disconnected three Ukrainian nuclear plants automatically from the national grid and triggered blackouts in the neighbouring country of Moldova, where the energy network is linked to Ukraine.

All three nuclear facilities had been reconnected by Thursday morning.

Why is Russia doing this?

After numerous defeats on the battlefield, Russia is now resorting to trying to bomb Ukrainian civilians into submission. It then hopes Kyiv will be forced into negotiations on terms favourable to the Kremlin.

The Kremlin said Ukraine was ultimately responsible for the fallout from the strikes, and that Kyiv could end the strikes by acquiescing to Russian demands.

Ukraine “has every opportunity to settle the situation, to fulfil Russia’s demands and as a result, end all possible suffering of the civilian population,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

What is Ukraine’s response to this?

There is absolutely no indication that the tactic will work. “The way they fight and target civil infrastructure, it can cause nothing but fury,” said Oleksiy Yakovlenko, chief administrator at a hospital in Ukraine’s eastern city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Region.

And in a BBC interview with Olena Zelenska on Wednesday, the Ukrainian first lady said: “We are ready to endure this.

“We’ve had so many terrible challenges, seen so many victims, so much destruction, that blackouts are not the worst thing to happen to us.”

What is in store over the coming weeks?

Russia is expected to launch more missile strikes against civilian infrastructure and the World Health Organization has warned of “life-threatening” consequences and estimated that millions could leave their homes as a result.

How is the rest of the world trying to help?

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola this week launched an appeal to get vitally needed equipment to the EU’s war-torn eastern neighbor.

“Ukrainians are currently without electricity as a result of Russia’s attacks on critical civilian infrastructure,” Metsola said.

Dario Nardella, mayor of the Italian city of Florence, who heads a network of local authorities in Europe, said he was looking to coordinate a group of 200 cities around the continent to send generators they have in storage to Ukraine.

“We’ve got the potential of sending several hundred, even industrial-sized, generators which will be able to produce quite a lot of power,” Nardella said.

Andriy Yermak, chief of staff at the Ukrainian presidency, said that generators were needed to help ensure people’s basic needs as Russia continues to bombard Ukraine.

But he said the top priority for Kyiv was to get other heavy equipment needed for the “immediate recovery” of the country’s power grid.

“We need to ensure generation and sustainable distribution of energy to sustain our economy,” Yermak said.

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Black Friday in Ukraine

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High-flying balloon characters star in Thanksgiving parade

NEW YORK (AP) — Throngs of spectators lined the streets of New York on Thursday as colorful, high-flying balloons help usher in the holiday season at the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.

Mostly sunny skies and a slight breeze are forecast for the annual tradition, which dates back nearly a century.

International cartoon sensation Bluey, the Australian cattle pup, will make her parade debut, with a balloon in her likeness towering as tall as a four-story building and stretching as wide as seven taxi cabs. Stuart, the one-eyed Minion, will also be there.

Snoopy, dressed as an astronaut, will again make an appearance, parade officials said, as will Papa Smurf, Ronald McDonald and SpongeBob.

This year’s parade, by the numbers: 16 giant balloons, 28 floats, 40 novelty and heritage inflatables, 12 marching bands, 10 performance groups, 700 clowns and one Santa Claus.

The procession of characters will be joined by singer Paula Abdul, in her first parade appearance; indie pop band Fitz and the Tantrums; boy band Big Time Rush; “Blue’s Clues & You!” host Josh Dela Cruz; singer Gloria Estefan; gospel singer Kirk Franklin; actor Mario Lopez; reggae star Ziggy Marley; and Miss America 2022 Emma Broyles.

Singers Joss Stone, Jordin Sparks and Betty Who will also be part of the festivities, as will the stars of Peacock’s “Pitch Perfect: Bumper in Berlin” — Adam Devine, Sarah Hyland and Flula Borg. Jimmy Fallon & The Roots will be on a float celebrating Central Park.

Viewers nationwide can watch the parade live on NBC and streaming on Peacock.

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Russian troops launch missile attack on Zaporizhzhia suburbs

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In the morning, Russian troops launched a missile assault on Zaporizhzhia suburbs.

Oleksandr Starukh, head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Armed service Administration, described this on Telegram, Ukrinform stories.

“Russian bastards again targeted Zaporizhzhia suburbs with a missile. The specifics of the incident are remaining investigated,” he wrote.

Missile assaults was launched following an air raid alert was declared.

As earlier claimed, the enemy attacked Zaporizhzhia at evening. The enemy missiles strike an area near the hospital.

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Russia“s war on Ukraine latest news: Harsh winter looms as Russian strikes hobble Ukraine“s power capacity

2022-11-22T19:47:14Z

Russian drones hit Dnipro early on Wednesday (November 9), damaging a warehouse and wounding four workers, according to Ukraine officials.

Ukraine’s government appealed to people to conserve energy amid relentless Russian strikes that have halved the country’s power capacity, as the United Nations health body warned of a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine this winter.

* Ukraine’s national power grid operator said the damage dealt to Ukrainian power-generating facilities by Russian missile attacks was “colossal” but he dismissed the need to evacuate civilians.

* The Kremlin said no substantive progress had been made towards creating a security zone around Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, once again accusing Kyiv of shelling at the plant and risking a nuclear incident.

* There are no immediate nuclear safety or security concerns at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia reactor complex despite shelling at the weekend that caused widespread damage, the U.N. atomic watchdog said after its experts toured the site.

* Moscow and Kyiv blame each other for repeated shelling in the immediate area of the facility.
CONFLICT

* Battles continued to rage in the east, where Russia has sent some of the forces it moved following its withdrawal from around the city of Kherson in the south. Moscow is pressing an offensive of its own along a stretch of frontline west of the city of Donetsk, held by its proxies since 2014.

* “The enemy does not stop shelling the positions of our troops and settlements near the contact line (in the Donetsk region),” the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said.

* Russian air defences repelled two drone attacks in Crimea, annexed from Ukraine in 2014, including one targeting a thermal power station near Sevastopol, the home port of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, the regional governor said.

* Russian shelling hit a humanitarian aid distribution centre in the town of Orihiv in southeastern Ukraine, killing a volunteer and wounding two women, the regional governor said.

* Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield accounts.

* Ukraine’s SBU security service and police raided a 1,000-year-old Orthodox Christian monastery in Kyiv as part of operations to counter suspected “subversive activities by Russian special services”, the SBU said.

* Russia’s Orthodox Church condemned the raid as an “act of intimidation”.

* Russian President Vladimir Putin will in the coming days meet the mothers of reservists called up to fight in Ukraine, the Kremlin said.

* Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany must be ready for the situation in Ukraine to escalate but that his recent trip to China was worth it alone for spelling out the two countries’ joint stance against using nuclear weapons.

* Disbursement of $4.5 billion in U.S. economic aid for Ukraine will begin in the coming weeks, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.

“Stock up on warm clothes, blankets, think about options that will help you wait a long outage. It’s better to do it now than to be miserable.” –Sergey Kovalenko, the head of YASNO, which provides energy for Kyiv.

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Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks near 11 settlements in past 24 hrs

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In excess of the previous 24 several hours, models of Ukraine’s Protection Forces repelled enemy assaults in the places around Stelmakhivka and Dibrova in Luhansk region and Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk location.

The Common Workers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine mentioned this in its operational update posted on Facebook, Ukrinform studies.

At the similar time, the Russian troops have launched 6 missile attacks, 14 airstrikes and 14 MLRS assaults on the positions of the Defense Forces and civilian objects.

On November 23, units of the Protection Forces inflicted fire hurt on the spots of concentration of enemy manpower and armed service gear in the village of Zelenyi Yar, Zaporizhzhia area. At least 20 invaders had been killed, far more than 15 wounded. Two trucks have been destroyed.

In the village of Mostove, Zaporizhzhia region, the Russian occupiers power the nearby population to register true estate and land documents in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation. In case of refusal, they threaten to “nationalize” the house, that is, simply just take away this authentic estate.

According to the General Staff members, the Ukrainian aviation continues to damage the invaders. In the course of the previous 24 hours, the Ukrainian Air Pressure introduced 12 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and navy equipment of the Russian army, as properly as two strikes on its air defense positions.

In addition, units of missile and artillery troops of Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck four enemy command posts, two clusters of Russian staff, navy products, an ammunition depot and a relay station.

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UK urges to disconnect Chinese security cameras in government buildings

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The British government banned the installation of Chinese-linked security cameras at sensitive facilities due to security risks.

Reuters reports that the British government ordered its departments to stop installing Chinese security cameras at sensitive buildings due to security risks. The Government has ordered departments to disconnect the camera from core networks and to consider removing them.

“The decision comes after a review of “current and future possible security risks associated with the installation of visual surveillance systems on the government estate,” cabinet office minister Oliver Dowden said in a written statement to parliament.” states Reuters.

The security cameras of the two Chinese firms are widely adopted by a number of government departments, including the interior and business ministries.

Dowden pointed out that the surveillance cameras must be carefully scrutinized because of their capability and connectivity of these systems.

“The review has concluded that, in light of the threat to the UK and the increasing capability and connectivity of these systems, additional controls are required,” Dowden said. “Departments have therefore been instructed to cease deployment of such equipment onto sensitive sites, where it is produced by companies subject to the National Intelligence Law of the People’s Republic of China.”

The risk is related to the use of security cameras manufactured by Chinese-owned companies Dahua and Hikvision. Both companies are also on the Covered List maintained by the the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

The Covered List, published by Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau published, included products and services that could pose an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States or the security and safety of United States persons.

Follow me on Twitter: @securityaffairs and Facebook and Mastodon

Pierluigi Paganini

(SecurityAffairs – hacking, security cameras)

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