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Russia likely planning to encircle Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut, Britain says

2022-12-03T07:25:01Z

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FILE PHOTO: Ukrainian servicemen fire a mortar on a front line, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, in this handout image released November 6, 2022. Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Independent Kholodnyi Yar Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo

(Reuters) – Russia is likely planning to encircle the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut with tactical advances to the north and south, Britain’s defence ministry said on Saturday.

The capture of the town would have limited operational value but it can potentially allow Russia to threaten Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the ministry added in a daily intelligence update.

“There is a realistic possibility that Bakhmut’s capture has become primarily a symbolic, political objective for Russia,” the ministry said in the update posted on Twitter.

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Ukraine to send nearly 60 ships carrying humanitarian cargo by end of spring as part of food security program

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By the close of spring, Ukraine will have sent about 60 ships carrying humanitarian cargo for worldwide foods stability uses.

That’s in accordance to President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke in a online video deal with to the country on Friday, Ukrinform studies.

“By the close of spring, we will have sent about 60 ships with this sort of humanitarian cargo. It will pretty much conserve thousands and thousands of folks from hunger. And I am grateful to all our companions who joined the Ukrainian initiative,” Zelensky explained.

In accordance to the president, Ukraine is rather actively moving along a person of the details of the Ukrainian peace components – foods security. The federal government employs every day to make the globe see and really feel that global security is probable only with each other with Ukraine.

Go through also: Ukrainian farmers harvest 41.9M tonnes of grain

“Nowadays, the 3rd ship inside the scope of our Grain from Ukraine initiative entered the port of Odesa. 25,000 tonnes of humanitarian wheat will be sent to Somalia. The 2nd ship, which is finishing loading in the port of Chornomorsk, will be heading to Ethiopia. There’s 30,000 tonnes of wheat on board. The first vessel below the Grain from Ukraine system is heading to Ethiopia,” the President added.

He also recalled the grain export initiative, which authorized putting practically 13 million tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural goods on the global foods market.

As described, entire-scale Russian armed forces aggression has been ongoing in Ukraine because February 24.

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EXPLAINER: Can Ukraine pay for war without wrecking economy?

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Even as Ukraine celebrates recent battlefield victories, its government faces a looming challenge on the financial front: how to pay the enormous cost of the war effort without triggering out-of-control price spikes for ordinary people or piling up debt that could hamper postwar reconstruction.

The struggle is finding loans or donations to cover a massive budget deficit for next year — and do it without using central bank bailouts that risk wrecking Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia.

Economists working with the government say that if Ukraine can shore up its finances through the end of next year, it is Russia that could find itself in financial trouble if a proposed oil price cap by the U.S., European Union and allies saps Moscow’s earnings.

Here are key facts about Ukraine’s economic battle against Russia:

HOW HAS UKRAINE BEEN PAYING FOR ITS DEFENSE SO FAR?

In the first days of Russia’s invasion, the Ukrainian government turned to foreign help that came at irregular intervals. When it didn’t have enough, the central bank bought government bonds using newly printed money. The alternative would have been to stop paying people’s pensions and state salaries.

Economists say printing money — while a badly needed stop-gap measure at the time — risks letting inflation get out of control and collapsing the value of the country’s currency if it continues.

Ukraine has painful memories of hyperinflation from the early 1990s, economist Nataliia Shapoval said. As a child, she watched her parents use large bundles of bills for everyday purchases as the currency lost value day by day, before being replaced by today’s hryvnia.

“Ukraine has been through this, so we know what inflation that is out of control looks like, and we don’t want this again,” said Shapoval, vice president for policy research at the Kyiv School of Economics. “The government and the central bank are already on the slippery slope by printing so much.”

Price stability and the ability to pay pensions have enormous impact on ordinary people and society at a time when Russia is trying to demoralize the population by knocking out power and water heading into winter.

With inflation already high at 27%, price hikes have made it hard for lower-income people to afford food.

Bread that used to cost the equivalent of 50 U.S. cents has doubled, said Halyna Morozova, a resident of Kherson, a recently liberated southern city.

“It is very depressing, and we are nervous. We were living on old stocks (of food), but now the light is turned off, the refrigerator doesn’t work and we have to throw away the food,” the 80-year-old said recently.

She said the Russians kept paying her Ukrainian pension in rubles but since they started to withdraw in October, she has received nothing. She’s counting on the government to return any pension money that was lost, she said.

Tetiana Vainshtein, also in Kherson, says natural gas is too expensive to keep her home heated. “I am cold. I like warmth, and I’m terribly cold,” the 68-year-old said.

Bank closures during the Russian occupation kept her from getting her pension cash, forcing her to carefully ration every hryvnia for food, she said.

HOW MUCH SUPPORT DOES UKRAINE NEED?

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine needs $38 billion in outright aid from Western allies like the U.S and 27-nation EU, plus $17 billion for a reconstruction fund for war damage.

Economists associated with the Kyiv School of Economics say a lower overall total of $50 billion from donors would be enough to get Ukraine through the year.

Defense spending is six times higher in the 2023 budget recently passed by the Ukrainian parliament compared to last year. Military and security spending will total 43% of the budget, or an enormous 18.2% of annual economic output.

The 2.6 trillion hryvnia budget has a yawning 1.3 trillion hryvnia deficit, meaning the government needs to find $3 billion to $5 billion a month to cover the gap. Recent attacks on energy infrastructure since the budget passed will only increase the financing need because repairs can’t wait for postwar reconstruction and will hit this year’s budget.

HOW COULD FINANCES AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR?

Despite Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has fared better than Ukraine’s because high oil and natural gas prices have bolstered the Kremlin’s budget.

Plans by the EU and allies in the Group of Seven democracies to place a price cap on Russian oil sales aim to change that.

The Kyiv school economists say “by the middle of next year, we believe that the economic situation will shift strongly in Ukraine’s favor, making strong partner support particularly important over the period until that point.”

HOW MUCH FINANCING DOES UKRAINE HAVE ALREADY?

The U.S. has been the leading donor, giving $15.2 billion in financial assistance and $52 billion in overall aid, including humanitarian and military assistance, through Oct. 3, according to the latest available data compiled by the Ukraine Support Tracker at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

EU institutions and member countries have committed $29.2 billion, though “many of their pledges are arriving in Ukraine with long delays,” said Christoph Trebesch, who heads the tracker team.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, has proposed 18 billion euros in no-interest, long-term loans for next year, which still need approval from member governments. The U.S. will likely contribute more as well.

Ukraine, however, is appealing for grants over loans. If all the financing comes as loans, debt would rise to over 100% of annual economic output from around 83% now and 69% before the war. That burden could hold back spending on the war recovery.

The $85 billion in total global assistance to Ukraine, according to the Ukraine Support Tracker, is less than 15% of the support European governments have pledged to shield consumers from high energy costs resulting from Russia’s natural gas cutbacks.

To get loans, the commission proposed requiring Ukraine to improve its record on corruption. Since 2014, Ukraine has raised its score on Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index from 26 to 32 out of 100 — not great, but improving.

U.S. officials have praised Ukraine’s online procurement platform for introducing transparency in government contracts — one big source of corrupt dealings and collusion — and saving $6 billion.

The prospect of EU membership also gives Ukraine incentive to clean up corruption.

COULD THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND HELP?

The IMF has given Ukraine $1.4 billion in emergency aid and $1.3 billion to cushion the shock from lost food exports.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told The Associated Press that the Washington-based fund is working on more assistance in cooperation with the Group of 7 wealthy democracies, chaired this year by Germany.

“We are on the way to come up with a sound and sizable program for Ukraine,” she said, “with the support specifically of the G-7 and the German leadership.”

However, for a larger loan program of $15 billion to $20 billion, it goes against IMF practices to lend money where the debts are not sustainable, and the war raises questions about that. The organization has been reluctant to lend to countries that don’t control their territory, a condition Ukraine does not yet meet.

The IMF “would have to seriously twist its existing framework or change it to provide substantial sums,” said Adnan Mazarei, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former deputy director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia department.

As a prelude to a possible assistance package, the IMF is holding a four-month period of consultation and enhanced monitoring of Ukrainian economic policies to help Kyiv establish a track record of good practice. That could build confidence for other donors to step in.

___

Associated Press writer Sam Mednick contributed from Kherson, Ukraine.

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AP PHOTOS: Residents face new reality in retaken Kherson

KHERSON, Ukraine (AP) — When Ukraine wrested back Kherson from Russian occupiers nearly a month ago, it was a moment of glory and pride, hailed as the beginning of the end of the war. But hardship for the city’s residents was far from over.

Though free from Russia’s control, the southern city and its surroundings are still living the consequences of nearly nine months of occupation, and feeling the deadly proximity of the Russian forces, now stationed across the Dnieper River.

Taken early in the war, in March, parts of the Kherson region were held by Russia until November, when Ukrainians swept the area, regaining control of the main city — Kherson, with a pre-war population of 200,000 — and other Russian-controlled zones.

The liberation came just weeks after Russia unlawfully annexed Kherson and three more regions following sham referendums. But the Russians dug in on the other side of the Dnieper, with Kherson within reach of their artillery.

Ever since, almost daily shelling and power and water outages have become a new reality. In the cold, people can be seen queuing for food or water rations. They mourn their dead and cover the bodies of new shelling victims that lie in pools of blood. Some draw water from the Dnieper, risking Russian sniper bullets from the other bank.

Unlike villages and towns directly on the frontline, the city of Kherson seemed relatively unscathed. When they regained control in mid-November, Ukrainian authorities organized concerts and the city rejoiced, briefly forgetting the war. Residents hailed arriving troops as heroes and wrapped themselves in Ukrainian flags that soldiers autographed. All beamed with pride and happiness.

Just weeks later, sirens herald ambulances carrying people hurt in the latest shelling. Evidence of possible atrocities by Russian occupiers has emerged in accounts of alleged torture. Facing frequent electricity outages, lines of people charge their phones at communal power spots in the city parks. At night, residents with flashlights rummage through the rubble of their bombed homes.

Some can’t take it. They pack belongings in their cars, take their pets and head for somewhere safer, hoping the war will end soon allow them to return home.

Those who stay are defiant and ready to endure hardship. Children play at abandoned checkpoints raising a Ukrainian flag despite nearby explosions, and other residents seek to shame suspected Russian collaborators tied up in public.

Elsewhere, a framed photo of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin lies on the ground, its glass smashed.

___

Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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Distaste for Walker provides tailwind for Warnock in Georgia

MORROW, Ga. (AP) — It might go without saying that Democrats generally vote against Republicans. But in Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff, it can hardly be overstated how much Democratic voters — and others — are driven by not wanting Republican challenger Herschel Walker to be their U.S. senator.

Ask Raphael Warnock’s voters what they think about the election, and it’s often criticism of Walker that first comes tumbling out.

“You’ve got a very ignorant, ignorant, ignorant fellow that’s running in Herschel Walker,” said Dennis Paris, an entertainer who lives in the Atlanta suburb of Jonesboro and voted for Warnock this week in Morrow. “I can’t see going through another thing like we had with an ignorant Trump making decisions for us, not caring about the people.”

Even many Georgia Republicans who are voting for Walker, the former University of Georgia and pro football star, say they’re not so much motivated by liking him as by disliking President Joe Biden’s administration and Warnock’s support for Biden’s policies

Tuesday’s runoff is far from settled. Warnock led Walker in the general election on Nov. 8 but came up short of a majority, necessitating another round of voting under state law.

Warnock and fellow Democrat Jon Ossoff won Senate seats in January 2021 following a runoff, giving their party razor-thin control of the Senate. But runoffs in Georgia historically have favored Republicans, in part because turnout has tended to fall sharply.

A heavy election day turnout by GOP voters could still push Walker to victory. After all, Republicans won every other statewide Georgia race last month.

However, distaste for Walker appears to be buoying Democratic enthusiasm. Some party leaders had feared their voters wouldn’t be motivated to turn out again for Warnock after the Democrats secured two more years of Senate control with victories in other states.

A strong early voting turnout has eased those worries. Through Thursday, nearly 1.5 million people had cast ballots early in Georgia, including several record-setting single days.

According to state voting data compiled by Ryan Anderson, an independent analyst in Atlanta, three of the state’s five Democratic-held congressional districts had already seen advance turnout through Thursday of at least 61% of the total early vote for the November election, None of Georgia’s nine Republican-held congressional districts had eclipsed that mark.

Some Walker voters are uneasy about him, too. Tom Glass, a software engineer who voted for Walker on Thursday in Marietta, said he reluctantly chose the Republican.

He backs Walker, he said, because he wants change in Washington, but he acknowledged, “I know all of the stuff that is said about him, and a good bit of it is actually true.”

Glass said he thinks the election matters less because Democrats already control the Senate, but he chose Walker anyway. “Is he the answer? No, but I don’t think Warnock is the answer.”

John McCombs of Riverdale said he voted for Walker simply because “I feel the nation is heading in the wrong direction.”

“I hope he can stop some of the policies that have taken our nation down the wrong path,” the information technology worker said, citing particular concern over “spending money we don’t have.”

In speeches and ads, Warnock and other Democrats have been playing up their portrait of a badly unqualified Walker who could disgrace their state.

“How embarrassed would you be if Herschel Walker was your senator?” asks one flyer mailed to homes this week by the Democratic Party of Georgia.

One Warnock television ad shows voters reacting with puzzlement and disgust to Walker remarks, including a Nov. 16 speech that included a tangent where Walker sought to relate the plot of the vampire movie “Fright Night” to his campaign.

He suggested that if voters only had faith, they could defeat Warnock by relying on greater patriotism and unity that ignores racial division.

But that message got buried by Democratic mockery slamming Walker as unserious, including by former President Barack Obama Thursday in a rally with Warnock in Atlanta.

“Since the last time I was here, Mr. Walker has been talking about issues that are of great importance to the people of Georgia — like whether it’s better to be a vampire or a werewolf,” Obama said. “This is a debate I must confess I once had myself — when I was seven. Then I grew up.”

Democratic voters frequently say they believe Walker is in over his head, lured into the race by former President Donald Trump or other Republicans who are relying on Walker’s football celebrity to snag a Senate seat for the GOP.

“I just feel like he’s a pawn, like they said ‘Let’s get Herschel in so we can get the seat,’” said Sherri Gates of Morrow. “I just don’t feel like he is qualified.”

Gates describes herself as a firm Democrat who supports Warnock, pastor of Martin Luther King Jr.’s former Atlanta church, because “for one thing, he’s a decent human being.”

“I do not want Herschel to represent me and my state,” she said. “He seems to have a hard time expressing himself. He just doesn’t appear to be a good representative of anybody, maybe even himself.”

Walker argues that it’s Warnock who doesn’t know what he’s doing by backing Biden so much.

Warnock says, “Come on. Georgia is better than Herschel Walker!”

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Ukraine police already probing 46,600 criminal cases involving Russian troops

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Considering the fact that the full-scale Russian invasion, the Nationwide Police of Ukraine have opened 46,600 criminal proceedings into the crimes fully commited by the Russian military services and their accomplices.

This was introduced by the Countrywide Police push service on Fb, Ukrinform stories.

“Due to the fact the entire-scale invasion by Russia, investigators with the Nationwide Police have initiated 46,649 prison proceedings into the info of crimes dedicated on the territory of Ukraine by servicemen of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and their accomplices,” the assertion reads.

Study also: SBU raids Moscow Patriarchate church buildings in a few areas

Most prison proceedings, 35,244, have been opened underneath Artwork. 438 of the Legal Code (Violation of regulations and customs of war), as nicely as 9,097 – less than Art. 110 of the Prison Code (Encroachment on the territorial integrity and inviolability of Ukraine).

On February 24, the Russian Federation introduced a complete-scale war on Ukraine as a different phase of armed forces aggression that has been ongoing considering that 2014.

Image: Nationwide Police of Ukraine

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Russian shelling causes at least $9B in damage to Kharkiv

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As a consequence of enemy shelling, Kharkiv sustained hurt really worth at the very least $9 billion, which is a really approximate quantity.

Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov stated this at a press meeting, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“As for the damages inflicted by Russian aggressors, they are extremely major. Now it is unattainable to say for sure no matter whether it is 6, 7, 8, or 9 billion bucks in financial terms. It can be said that as of nowadays, it is somewhere close to $9 billion. But this is a extremely approximate determine. Mainly because there are factors that can not be evaluated now,” Terekhov explained.

Go through also: Russian S-300 missile hits five-story setting up in the vicinity of Kharkiv

According to the mayor, close to 500 condominium structures cannot be restored (about 300 of them in Northern Saltivka, which was the district most impacted by shelling). In addition, 109 colleges and 110 kindergartens ended up destroyed or ruined to a single diploma or a different, although some of them are not able to be restored.

Russian troops also ruined 53 healthcare facilities, as nicely as boiler residences, drinking water pumps, and municipal transport.

As noted, in Kharkiv, the household areas of Pivnichna Saltivka, Horyzont, and the village of Pyatykhatka are the areas most affected by Russian shelling.

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Sexual violence Russia’s weapon of war, approved by commanders globalsecuritynews.org/sexual-violenc…

Sexual violence Russia’s weapon of war, approved by commanders globalsecuritynews.org/sexual-violenc…

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