Vladimir Putin’s military failure in Ukraine can also make him vulnerable to political opposition at home
Vladimir Putin’s failure to complete his initial war aims in Ukraine is so complete, it is unclear to what end Russia fights on, except to protect the president from the humiliation of admitting defeat. Since the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions have been checked, Russia’s offensive capabilities have been directed more at terrorising civilians and degrading Ukrainian infrastructure. The plan is to plunge the country into freezing darkness through the winter in the hope of depleting the will to resist.
There is no sign of that working. Mr Putin’s failure to understand the resilient character of Ukraine as a proudly independent nation was the foundational error of his war. The Russian president has also miscalculated when measuring his own people’s appetite for war. It looked voracious in the opening weeks, when state propaganda channels had little difficulty whipping up a bellicose fervour. That ardour subsided in the military quagmire and has drained away since mass conscription was introduced in September. That is not to say masses of citizens are turning seditious. Dissent is muted by fear and the habit of allegiance to the flag at times of crisis.
