Russia’s War Against Ukraine has Led to the Rejection of the Traditional Russocentric Western Approach to Studying the former Soviet-dominated Region

Over the last year we’ve all been spectators of an interesting scene: the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to veto the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO. The Western reaction fell surprisingly short. Once again Erdogan was playing a game that he has mastered throughout his uninterrupted rule of two decades.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine brought a significant opportunity for Erdogan because Turkey is practically the only country with leverage on both sides of the trench. Of course, he could not stop the war. But Erdogan has used the situation to promote his persona within and outside Turkey. Considering Turkey’s deep economic issues recently escalating into a full-blown crisis, this mediator role was the only saving grace for an aging strongman.

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Being a great Machiavellian, Erdogan wanted to utilize his potential position to buy legitimacy in the West and convince them that his strategic worth outweighed his numerous violations of democratic principles. So far, it has paid off. The West ignored the fact that Turkey was the only NATO member that did not join the sanctions against Russia. Furthermore, a variety of Western leaders made official visits to Turkey, including the U.N. Secretary-General, all of which bolsters Erdogan’s international credibility.

It´s a deep frustration for me. I had to witness how my beautiful country Turkey, once on the path to becoming a strong democracy with a bright future, was not able to show enough resilience. It only needed one manipulator like Erdogan to make the whole country stray from the democratic path. Erdogan has become an authoritarian leader who reversed, step by step, almost every single democratization advance that happened under his early time of rule—why? To stay in power.

We all witnessed it: Power corrupts, absolute power—to which Erdogan is closer every day—corrupts absolutely. But my frustration isn’t only with Erdogan, but with the majority of Turkish society.

Democracy is obsolete in Erdogan’s eyes. But why is democracy obsolete for them, too? Why is it fine for them that their fundamental rights are violated by those who have taken an oath to protect them? How can they be so indifferent towards massive and systematic human rights violations targeting political dissidents especially Kurds and members of the Gülen Movement? There are crimes against humanity happening on a daily basis and they just stay silent, or even worse, are in favor of them.

And, of course, there is my frustration towards the West.

The West did not call his bluff in all these years. It has not found a means to really put the brakes on Erdogan—one cannot help but ask: Maybe it does not want to stop him? It allows itself to be undermined time and again by the Turkish president. There’s not one dispute over the years where the U.S., the EU or NATO called Erdogan’s bluff. Domestically, they are even helping Erdogan. It goes down well with his supporters if he stands up to the U.S. and Europe. The Turkish president has mastered the art of polarization like few others.

And the different in values is stark. NATO stands for: Promoting democratic values, enabling members to consult and cooperate on defense and solving security-related issues and preventing conflict. In military terms NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations.

These are NATO’s most fundamental values and yet they are ignored by the autocratic Erdogan. In the midst of NATO’s biggest Russian crisis, Erdogan has continued developing deeper relations with Putin that go against NATO’s interests and perhaps even acting a Trojan horse within NATO. For example, Erdogan went so far to demand the extradition of political dissidents, who had to flee from his cruelties to Europe. He can’t stand the fact that some managed to escape him.

And above all he is manipulating the membership process of Sweden and Finland, which are ranked 3rd and 6th in The Economist Democracy Index, on the grounds that they harbor “terrorists”—which is just ridiculous. Then again, even I am a terrorist for Erdogan. It is ridiculous and incomprehensible, call it whatever you want: This has been the bitter truth for millions of Turks who have faced nearly 2 million “terrorism” investigations under Erdogan’s regime.

A NATO member that is close to the abyss in any assessment of human rights and democracy measurements, prevents two of the most democratic countries in the world from getting the protection they deserve. And this despite the fact that, as a NATO member, it should be clear that the expansion of NATO to include Finland and Sweden will put NATO in a stronger position. With enlargement, the Baltic Sea becomes almost a NATO lake.

With his performance today, Erdogan wants to reinforce the impression that he is a global player capable of manipulating the West. We should understand why he’s doing this because it helps him domestically. More precisely, Erdogan faces a tough time ahead of the elections scheduled for June 18, 2023. The shrinking economy, the depreciating Turkish lira, and high inflation, which is officially 83.45% but estimated to be around 186.27%, have significantly changed views on Turkey.

My question is: Will the West call Erdogan’s bluff? Or will they continue to tolerate this Trojan horse in the NATO? And by doing this, help him to stay in power? The people in Turkey deserve so much better than this. The West must not allow Erdogan to instrumentalize them for his own political games. It’s time, that the people of Turkey, who are standing up for democracy and human rights, get the support they deserve from the West. I am aware that this will of course not end Erdogan’s reign or bring about a democratic rebirth but that shouldn’t be an excuse for inaction.

The question is: Will the West stand by the Turkish people and promote democracy in Turkey?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022 dominated last year like no other news—and for good reason. The conflict is the largest land war in Europe since World War II, it has upended the global economy, and has forced nearly 8 million Ukrainians to flee their country.

Still, there were no shortages of other major stories in 2022.

Iranians began protesting against their government at a scale not seen since the 1979 revolution. Queen Elizabeth II, Britain’s steadfast monarch, died after seven decades on the throne as King Charles III took over; meanwhile, the U.K. saw a record three Prime Ministers before Rishi Sunak was appointed. Unprecedented protests broke out in China as anger boiled over President Xi Jinping’s zero-COVID policies. Pakistan saw record flooding that inundated a third of the country. Shinzo Abe, who led Japan from 2006 to 2007 and 2012 to 2020, was assassinated. And, most recently of all, Lionel Messi bolstered his claim as soccer’s GOAT, after leading Argentina to a thrilling World Cup win in a historic tournament that was no stranger to controversy.

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As was the case in 2022, this year is bound to have plenty of surprises. But in the meantime, a handful of TIME journalists from around the globe have some predictions for big stories to watch in 2023.

Read More: These Are the Elections to Watch in 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic could be officially over

But how long the economic fallout lingers is another question. While China’s abandonment of its “dynamic zero-COVID” policy has reduced fears of lockdown-related global supply chain snarl-ups, the nation’s hospitals are now straining under a deluge of infections, adding different pressures. Around 40% of Chinese people aged 80 and up have been triple-vaccinated, fueling concerns that roughly 1 million people could perish over the next few months. This grim projection could push President Xi Jinping to hit the brakes on China’s reopening. Either way, how the country navigates COVID-19 given its “immunity gap” will have profound impact not just on China but the world. — Charlie Campbell

The battle between autocracies and democracies ramps up further

A new cold war between China and the West is accelerating. Enmeshed in the interlocking economics of the capitalism that prevailed in the original Cold War, the contest is framed as the choice between liberty on the one hand, and technology (especially communications) that places its faith in a central authority on the other. It’s basically, as U.S. President Joe Biden called it, a challenge to demonstrate that democracy still has the most to offer the world. This competition is playing out not just between geopolitical rivals but also within democracies—most notably in India, but even in the U.S. — Karl Vick

Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on

The forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin have faced major defeats in recent months, and they have retaliated by targeting key Ukrainian infrastructure as winter sets in. But while this tactic has had devastating effects, the war does not look poised to end in Moscow’s favor. Despite widespread assumptions that winter conditions favor the Russian military, experts suggest that poorly trained and equipped Kremlin troops may lead to a further plummeting of morale. Putin said in late September that he was “still open to talks” with Ukraine, but his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, replied that he would only negotiate “if another President comes to power.” Still, difficult choices lie ahead for Zelensky, who has reiterated his aim to “return all lands” to Ukraine, including whether to open a front in Crimea following success in Donbas and elsewhere. — Charlie Campbell

The world continues to power ahead on renewable energy

Europe is building new natural gas infrastructure to try and replace what it lost after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the war’s more lasting global effect may have been a dramatic worldwide shift toward renewable energy. As countries around the world come to terms with the costs of relying on imported fossil fuels, renewables are set to grow as fossil fuel power plants decline, with renewables expected to pass coal as the world’s largest electricity source by 2025, according to a December International Energy Agency report. That report dramatically revised renewables projections upwards in response to policy shifts in Europe, China, and the U.S. — Alejandro de la Garza

Iran bends toward democracy—or doesn’t

Save for Ukraine, the marquee international crisis might be the slow-motion rebellion in the Islamic Republic, the demise of which has been sought by Western powers, and especially Israel, for nearly a half century. While the mass protests show no sign of abating, it’s also unclear that they will prevail, at least in the short term. The mullahs may choose in the meantime to sprint for a bomb—either to actually acquire one, and the attendant insurance that comes with being a nuclear power—or to provoke an Israeli or U.S. attack that will rally Iranians around the flag. The latter may not actually work, given the scale and youth of the protesters, who are so confounding Iran’s security apparatus. As Azadeh Moaevni said of the rebels, “sometimes they seem more like transnational Gen Z than Iranian.” — Karl Vick

Recession hits much of the world

Inflation in rich countries has put poor ones in a tough spot. Countries like Sri Lanka and Ghana defaulted on their debt in 2022, felled by the combination of high inflation, a strong U.S. dollar, and slowing growth (if not recession) in many parts of the world. This could be the beginning of a global debt crisis; the World Bank estimates that around 60% of developing nations have debts that are unsustainable or could become unsustainable. The worry is not just that the debt crisis could serve as a headwind on tepid economic growth worldwide, but that people living in countries that default on their debt will continue to struggle without food, power, and other necessities that the rest of the world has long considered a basic right. — Alana Semuels

Latin America’s political tide shifts

The election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as Brazil’s President in October and Gustavo Petro as Colombia’s in June cemented the “second Pink Tide.” Today, all six of Latin America’s largest economies are ruled by leftists. But trouble lies ahead. The problems that propelled many of them into office in recent years—stagnating economies, crime, and political crises—are still raging. They have already cut short honeymoon periods for Chile’s Gabriel Boric, Honduras’ Xiomara Castro, and Peru’s now-removed President Pedro Castillo. Some analysts argue that this Pink Tide was powered less by enthusiasm for leftists than by anger at right-wing incumbents. The first crack may be in October, when Argentina goes to the polls. President Alberto Fernández, from the nominally leftist Peronist movement, is deeply unpopular. — Ciara Nugent

India’s has a make-or-break year as an emerging power

As India gains ground on China economically and takes over hosting the G20, many are asking whether the country might be on its way to becoming the next global superpower. This year, India is set to overtake China as the most-populated country. Indian billionaires Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani have accumulated a staggering wealth built on ports, airports, media ownership, and clear energy investment—a steep rise that’s fast become the symbol of India’s growth. According to economists, India could even overtake Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy in the world in the next decade. But India’s rise will depend on whether it can truly grow its manufacturing sector through its youth boom as China’s labor force ages out, while also taking advantage of China’s geopolitical conflict with the West to reshape international supply chains. — Astha Rajvanshi

Challenges to Taiwan’s sovereignty

Cross-strait tensions are at their highest since the 1996 Taiwanese presidential elections, when China conducted a series of missile tests just before the polls. Heightened scrutiny of China’s exit from zero-COVID and a sluggish economy may push President Xi Jinping to do something drastic; security officials in Taipei and Washington are sounding the alarm about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as early as 2023. Or perhaps Beijing will draw from its playbook in Hong Kong, using the threat of military overtures to coerce the island democracy to submit to Xi’s rule. The U.S. has bolstered its presence in the Indo-Pacific region, with President Biden promising to defend Taiwan in the case of an attack. In the wake of Russia’s brazen invasion of Ukraine, nothing is out of the realm of possibility. — Chad de Guzman

The Vatican on Wednesday served up a surreal moment in which a living pope spoke to some of the faithful in one part of the tiny city-state while others a short distance way were honouring a deceased former pontiff.

Pope Francis held his general audience in a large modern hall, a routine event for a Wednesday.

“I would like us to join with those here beside us who are paying their respects to Benedict XVI,” Francis told several thousand people at the start of his audience, in which he is concluding a catechesis, or religious teaching.

Francis, 86, who will preside at Benedict’s funeral on Thursday, called his predecessor “a great master of catechesis.”

Benedict, a towering theologian and hero to conservative Catholics uncomfortable with Francis’ more progressive papacy, in 2013 became the first pope in 600 years to resign instead of reigning for life.

At about the same time as Francis was speaking and only several dozen metres (yards) away, the great doors of St. Peter’s Basilica were being opened to the public for the third and last day of public viewing of Benedict’s body.

As of Tuesday night, about 135,000 people had filed past the former pope, who has been lying in state without any papal regalia on a catafalque, a raised bier, before the basilica’s main altar.

The decision not to have them during the public viewing appeared to have been decided to underscore that he no longer was pope when he died last Saturday at the age of 95.

The viewing is due to end at 7 p.m. on Wednesday and shortly afterwards Benedict’s body will be placed in a coffin made of cypress wood.

With him will be coins and medals minted during his eight years as pope and a sealed lead tube holding a deed written in Latin describing his pontificate – all customary for funerals of popes.

Also placed inside will be three palliums – bands of wool cloth worn around the neck by popes, archdiocesan bishops and other bishops with territorial jurisdiction, to signify their roles as shepherds of their flocks. Popes are also bishops of Rome.

The coffin will be placed on the ground near the outside steps of St. Peter’s Basilica and the faithful will say the rosary before the funeral Mass begins.

Benedict had left word that he wanted his funeral to be simple.

The liturgy for the Mass will be based mostly on that for a reigning pope, with some minor modifications, Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni said.

Some prayers that are specific to the death of reigning pope will be omitted but there will be prayers for both Benedict and Francis, he said.

In a private service after the funeral, the cypress coffin will be will be placed into a zinc coffin and sealed and then both will be placed into another coffin made of wood, according to tradition for the burial of a pope.

Benedict will be buried according to his wishes in the same spot in the crypts under St. Peter’s Basilica where Pope John Paul II was originally interred in 2005 before his body was moved up to a chapel in the basilica in 2011.

President Joe Biden and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell will make a rare joint appearance on Wednesday at a bridge in Kentucky in a display of bipartisanship that offers a guide to how the White House hopes to govern in months to come.

As hardline Republicans create turmoil in the House of Representatives by blocking the rest of the party’s chosen leader, Kevin McCarthy, Biden and McConnell’s visit is likely to paint a sharp contrast – and that’s just what Biden aides and allies are hoping for.

Biden and McConnell, both 80, will visit the Kentucky side of the Brent Spence Bridge connecting Covington and Cincinnati, Ohio, to tout how funds from the $1 trillion infrastructure law that passed Congress with bipartisan support will be used to repair the congested crossing.

Both veteran politicians have their political reasons for appearing together. McConnell wants to get credit from voters in his home state of Kentucky for the spending project, while Biden wants to highlight the on-the-ground impacts of lawmakers working together.

Vice President Kamala Harris and other top administration officials are fanning out across the country for similar events in coming days.

Biden has enjoyed Democratic control of Congress during his first two years in office. But after midterm elections in November, Republicans now in control of the House plan to try to stall his agenda and launch investigations into his family and cabinet members.

That’s the opposite of what the White House thinks voters want.

Democrats’ unexpected success in the last midterms shows “the American people said very loudly and clearly they wanted us to come together and work for a common ground,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Wednesday.

Biden’s political aides’ strategy for the 2022 midterms was to paint the opposition party as beholden to its more extremist elements still wed to the legacy of former Republican president Donald Trump. They now see it as a dry-run for Biden’s own 2024 re-election campaign, as well.

Biden, who was a long-time Democratic senator from Delaware, has had sharp differences with McConnell on economic policy and the government’s role in America. McConnell’s decision to refuse to consider then-President Barack Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland as a Supreme Court justice, when Biden was vice president and McConnell was Senate majority leader, was a source of tension.

Biden told reporters on Monday that while “we’ve been friends a long time,” the trip has nothing to do with his relationship with McConnell.

“It’s a giant bridge, man. It’s a lot of money. It’s important,” he said.

The two will be joined by Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, former Ohio Senator Rob Portman, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Ohio Governor Mike DeWine.

The 2021 infrastructure law includes $27 billion over five years to fix and replace thousands of aging bridges.

Four moveable bridges crossing the Calumet River in Chicago, Illinois; the Gold Star Memorial Bridge in New London, Connecticut; and the famous Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, California, will also receive funding.

McConnell, of Kentucky, was among a handful of Republicans who voted for the infrastructure law while many House Republicans including McCarthy opposed it.

Startups like Rivian are running out of room to make excuses for production woes.

Rivian

• Electric vehicle startups have a big year ahead after a challenging 2022.
• Investors are expected to lose patience with ‘stupid mistakes.’
• Startups have to make good this year on promises that won them lofty valuations.

After a challenging and humbling 2022 riddled with supply chain constraints, production hurdles, stock drops, and talent turnover, EV startups Rivian, Lucid, and more are staring down some big deadlines for success in 2023.

After these startups made promises that won them several-billion-dollar valuations, investors may lose patience with their struggles — especially as legacy players like Ford and GM crowd into the market.

“Excuses around the production of new vehicles will grow tired for startups in the coming year,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions. 

“As the pressure on the supply chain eases, investors can point to a General Motors and say, ‘They’re building without a problem, why can’t you?'”  

A brutish 2022

Essentially all of today’s budding startups have blamed a majority of their troubles on broader industry disruptions in 2022.

Some of these problems included getting enough supply or the right supply for flagship vehicles, exacerbated by less-established supplier relationships for startups just getting their assembly factories on line. 

On top of that, the pending battery crisis also worried the younger carmakers even more than it did companies such as Ford, GM, Volkswagen and more. 

And the turn of the calendar won’t wipe away the problems. During quarterly earnings calls, executives at Rivian and Lucid cautioned investors of more trouble heading into 2023 as they raced to ramp up production and their logistics processes in hand. 

Rivian, for example, warned of a “significant discrepancy” in the number of vehicles it produced in Q4 versus deliveries as it grapples with changes to the production schedule, a shift to using shipping vehicles by rain instead of by truck, and an expected slowdown in demand during the holiday season.

Others fought just to start production. Both Canoo and Fisker began building vehicles on November 17, while Faraday continued to struggle and was not able to start its assembly line. 

Accordingly, stock prices have been sinking from blockbuster IPO and SPAC highs, with many EV startups’ shares down as much as 80% from earlier last year. As investors begin to shy away, a cash crunch is materializing. Reserves are shrinking as startups burn cash on the pricey proposition of manufacturing expansions. 

Ways to find success this year

There are some bright spots for startups this year, experts say — if these companies can nail down production and conserve cash.

Rivian reported Tuesday it fell a few hundred vehicles short of its goal to build 25,000 electric cars in 2022. The startup built 10,020 vehicles in the fourth quarter to finish the year at 24,337 for the full year. Lucid, which has not yet released its Q4 deliveries, dropped its production target twice and churned out 3,687 by that period — while only delivering about 66% of those.

If the startups want to succeed and regain investor faith, they have to get closer to meeting their numbers in 2023.

On the cash front, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said in a December 28 note that 2023 will be a “reset year” for the EV space — so long as they have the money to do so.

“We believe players that are self-funded (non-reliant on external capital funding) with demonstrated scale and cost leadership throughout the value chain,” Jonas wrote, “can be relative winners.”

Finally, investor patience for returns is going to wear thin this year as the economic landscape becomes tougher and interest rates make investing a more expensive proposition, said Fiorani.

“Investors are going to expect more for their money,” he said. “Making sure there aren’t any stupid errors going forward will be the bare minimum.”

Not everyone, however, is confident the startups can do this.

“After an extremely difficult year of equity performance for upstart EV manufacturers,” Garrett Nelson, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research, said in a late December note, “we see little reason for optimism when looking ahead to 2023.”