WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that the intensifying military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could vastly expand Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, six senior U.S. officials told NBC News.

U.S. officials are also bracing for North Korea to potentially take its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at Putin’s urging, the officials said. 

The timing, they said, could be designed to create turmoil in yet another part of the world as Americans decide whether to send President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump back to the White House.

“We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalatory it is,” a U.S. intelligence official said. 

U.S. intelligence officials accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election to help elect Trump. The Biden administration had tense relations with Russia, which collapsed after it invaded Ukraine in 2022.

After the publication of this story, Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign spokesman, said “the only ‘October surprise’ will be the look of shock” among reporters when Trump wins re-election.

With Putin expected to visit North Korea to meet with Kim in the coming weeks, U.S. officials expect them to solidify a new deal to expand transfers of military technology to Pyongyang. 

“2024 is not going to be a good year,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster.”

A burgeoning alliance

U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for Pyongyang’s sending Russia large amount of munitions for its war in Ukraine, the senior U.S. officials said. North Korea provides Russia with more munitions than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells.

Officials are also concerned that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine able to launch a nuclear-armed missile. 

In September, North Korea unveiled a submarine, based on an old Soviet model, but U.S. officials said Pyongyang was most likely exaggerating its capabilities. They said the submarine still needed additional technology before it could deploy or launch a nuclear-armed missile. 

Despite repeatedly offering to begin talks without any conditions, the U.S. has had no significant dialogue with the Kim regime for three years, the officials said. The administration reached out to North Korea again this year, but it did not respond.

U.S. officials said they do not have an entirely clear understanding of the types of technology Russia is supplying North Korea. Unlike weapons transfers that can be physically tracked, sharing of military technology is not as easily detected. 

“The higher-end Russia technical assistance comes in forms that are very difficult indeed to monitor,” a senior administration official said.

U.S. officials cautioned that the North Korean ammunition is most likely old and unreliable. But North Korea sent the artillery at a time when Ukraine was struggling with stockpiles and had to ration ammunition, so the influx gave Russia an advantage on the battlefield.

The officials said that in exchange for the ammunition it is providing Moscow, North Korea wants Russia to provide it with ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and other advanced technologies.

In recent months North Korea has continued to advance its missile program, including testing a solid-fuel engine for a hypersonic missile and other incremental advances that together have made its missile program more reliable, U.S. officials warn. 

Pyongyang has long sought a long-range ballistic missile able to fly thousands of miles and then re-enter the atmosphere with the payload intact. U.S. officials warn that Russia could now be helping it achieve the final steps. A nuclear-capable missile with survivable re-entry vehicles would present a significant challenge for U.S. missile defense systems. 

U.S. officials also said there has been increased activity at one of the North Korean nuclear test facilities, which could indicate preparations for another test. Satellite images published in April by Beyond Parallel, a project examining the Korean Peninsula at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, showed activity at Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility.

The group said that “both the United States and South Korea have assessed North Korea as having completed all the required preparations for conducting a seventh nuclear test from the tunnel.”

The Biden administration has been expecting a nuclear test from North Korea for some time. The U.S. recently prepared contingency plans for how to respond if Kim takes aggressive actions in the demilitarized zone with South Korea or shells South Korea’s border islands, which he has not done since 2010. 

“We are going to be ready and prepared,” the senior administration official said, noting the administration’s coordination with South Korea and Japan.

U.S. officials said they are also concerned that Moscow could help North Korea with its domestic manufacturing of weapons and even create a defense industrial base partnership. 

An ‘October surprise’?

Whether or not Putin encourages Kim to take provocative actions designed to create a so-called October surprise in the U.S. presidential election, a second senior administration official said Russia might hesitate to such a step. The official said China, which has also grown closer to Russia and helped Putin wage his war in Ukraine, typically does not want instability in the region.

Still, U.S. officials concede there is much about the Russia-North Korea alliance — and where it could go from here — that they do not know. Increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region would come after two wars have broken out since Biden took office: one in Ukraine and the other between Israel and Hamas. 

Trump has argued that both wars are a result of Biden’s leadership and would not have happened were he in office. Biden White House officials vehemently dispute that claim.

The increasingly close relationship between Putin and Kim represents a major shift from when Russia worked with the U.S. in the past to try to rein in North Korea. Now, Moscow is using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to give Pyongyang cover to evade sanctions enforcement measures intended to constrain its nuclear program. 

“This is an enormous shift,” the second senior administration official said.

Published August 30, 2024 at 1:23 PM EDT

The 2024 presidential election cycle has seen its share of headlines in recent months:

• A party feverishly trying to convince an incumbent president not to run for re-election.
• A candidate getting shot at during an apparent assassination attempt.
• The sitting president bowing out of the race and immediately endorsing his vice president to replace him.
• A candidate with a real chance of becoming America’s first African-American, Asian-American, female President. 

“This has been unprecedented,” said Eastern Connecticut State University Presidential historian Thomas Balcerski.

Balcerski said adding to the list of unprecedented events is the public’s reaction to former President Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance.

“We’ve seen a party who brought about a vice presidential nominee that has proven historically unpopular and has actually fallen in its approval ratings more than any other candidate,” he said.

On top of that Balcerski said Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination is notable, because we now have “a Democratic National Committee with a candidate who’s received no votes in the primary.”

So, what can history teach us about how this most unique Presidential election season will play out? According to Balcerski, history says no matter what the polls say today, a surprise is probably coming.

“We’ve been talking as if the election is somehow decided in June or July and August. It’s not,” Balcerski said. “It’s decided in those final months of October and November, and famously or infamously, we always seem to have something in those last couple of weeks, which we now call the ‘October surprise,’ that could change the entire course of the race.”

The history of the ‘October Surprise’

An “October Surprise” is now defined as ”an unexpected political event or revelation in the month before a presidential election, especially one that seems intended to influence the outcome,” according to The Oxford English Dictionary

But Balcerski says that is only the most recent definition.

“It didn’t actually have a political meaning,” Balcerski said. “It’s an interesting term that actually comes out of advertising, when department stores would give a sale. We now might call it more like Black Friday.”

A little more than four decades ago, Balcerski said the term’s evolution into a political phenomena began in earnest.

“It really took on historical or political meaning in 1980, when President Reagan’s campaign manager was fired right in the eve of the election, and then he ended up beating President Carter anyway,” Balcerski said. “That was considered the first ‘October Surprise.’”

October Surprises have been numerous since Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential run.

“In 2016, it would seem the ‘October Surprise’ may have peaked with, in that case, news that came out against candidate Donald Trump about some of his conduct and behavior in 2005 this is the famous entertainment Hollywood Video,” Balcerski said.

Then came a second surprise.

“We also saw on that same week, but what an incredible week it was, that the FBI had reopened an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s staff and use of a private email server,” he said.

In 2020, a major October Surprise was Trump getting sick with COVID-19, as well as Hunter Biden’s laptop. The New York Post published a story in mid-October 2020 detailing documents found on the device.

“And so here we are now, in 2024 with ‘anything can happen,’” Balcerski said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it does.”

Stand up for civility

This news story is funded in large part by Connecticut Public’s Members —
listeners, viewers, and readers like you who value fact-based journalism and trustworthy information.

We hope their support inspires you to donate so that we can continue telling stories that inform, educate, and inspire you and your neighbors. As a
community-supported public media service, Connecticut Public has relied on donor support for more than 50 years.

Your donation today will allow us to continue this work on your behalf. Give today at any amount and join the 50,000 members who are
building a better—and more civil—Connecticut to live, work, and play.

Donate