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China and Russia likely won’t support each other militarily: Analysts

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Key Points
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin virtually for the second time this year on Wednesday.
  • The meeting came just days after the U.S. and the other Group of 7 major economies condemned Russiaxe2x80x99s military build-up and xe2x80x9caggressive rhetoric towards Ukraine.xe2x80x9dxc2xa0
  • Beijing likely wants to ensure that if it were to take military action against Taiwan, xe2x80x9cthe Russians wouldnxe2x80x99t do anything,xe2x80x9d said Angela Stent, a professor at Georgetown University. xe2x80x9cI think both sides recognize, Putin knows, that if he invaded Ukraine, China [isnxe2x80x99t] going to send military help.xe2x80x9d

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BEIJING xe2x80x94 International pressure may have pushed China and Russia closer together, but not enough for the two countries to send military support to each other, U.S.-based analysts said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin virtually for the second time this year on Wednesday. It came just days after the U.S. and the other Group of 7 major economies condemned Russiaxe2x80x99s military build-up and xe2x80x9caggressive rhetoric towards Ukraine.xe2x80x9dxc2xa0

xe2x80x9cBeijing and Moscow are forging closer ties because both governments view deeper bilateral cooperation as beneficial to their respective national interests, and not primarily because of an ideological affinity between Xi and Putin,xe2x80x9d said Neil Thomas, analyst for China and northeast Asia at consulting firm Eurasia Group.

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China and Russia would rather xe2x80x9cdivide Washingtonxe2x80x99s political attention between strategic hotspots in Europe and the Indo-Pacific,xe2x80x9d he said in an email.xc2xa0

Itxe2x80x99s not clear what Beijingxe2x80x99s position on Ukraine is, but China has come under similar international scrutiny over human rights issues, and territorial claims on the democratically self-ruled island of Taiwan.

Neither of them specifically endorsed the position of the other with regard to their points of sensitivity, so I think they both want to preserve some sort of flexibility.
William Courtney
adjunct senior fellow, Rand Corp

This year, while Moscow has sent troops to the border with Ukraine, Beijing has increased military activity near Taiwan. U.S. President Joe Biden recently made confusing statements on whether Washington would defend Taiwan upon attack.

Beijing likely wants to ensure that if it were to take military action against Taiwan, xe2x80x9cthe Russians wouldnxe2x80x99t do anything,xe2x80x9d said Angela Stent, professor emerita and director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown University.

xe2x80x9cI think both sides recognize, Putin knows, that if he invaded Ukraine, China [isnxe2x80x99t] going to send military help,xe2x80x9d she said on CNBCxe2x80x99s xe2x80x9cSquawk Box Asiaxe2x80x9d on Thursday. xe2x80x9cBut theyxe2x80x99ll remain completely neutral and that allows them to do whatever they want in what they consider to be their sphere of influence.xe2x80x9d

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Official reports from both Beijing and Moscow portrayed the two leadersxe2x80x99 virtual meeting Wednesday as a yet another friendly conversation that strengthened the countriesxe2x80x99 relationship.

Analysts highlighted the rare and more personal use of xe2x80x9cyouxe2x80x9d in Xixe2x80x99s address of Putin, as released by Chinaxe2x80x99s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

However, xe2x80x9cneither of them specifically endorsed the position of the other with regard to their points of sensitivity, so I think they both want to preserve some sort of flexibility,xe2x80x9d William Courtney, adjunct senior fellow at the Rand Corp. said on CNBCxe2x80x99s xe2x80x9cCapital Connectionxe2x80x9d on Thursday. He is a former U.S. ambassador to Georgia and Kazakhstan.

In the video call, Xi said he looked forward to meeting the Russian leader in person at the Olympics in Beijing in February. The Chinese leader also xe2x80x9creaffirmed Chinaxe2x80x99s commitment to firmly support Russia in maintaining long-term stability,xe2x80x9d according to a release from Chinaxe2x80x99s foreign ministry.

Russia talks up Chinaxe2x80x99s goodwill

Moscow struck an even more optimistic tone.

In the video call, Putin said Russiaxe2x80x99s relations with China were at their best level ever, according to statements from both countries.

A Kremlin aide also claimed to reporters after the meeting that Xi said the bilateral relationship was stronger and more effective than that of allies, although the two sides do not have such a formal alliance.

xe2x80x9cPresident Xi stressed that he understands Russian concerns and fully supports our initiative to develop appropriate security guarantees for Russia,xe2x80x9d said Yury Ushakov, Russian presidential aide on foreign policy.

VIDEO2:1802:18
Russia-China relations not an alliance between both countries, says think tank

Putin has said Washington should not allow Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organizationxc2xa0in return for assurances that Russia would not invade. But Biden told Putin in a virtual meeting last week that Washington would not accept such a demand.

An attack on one member of NATO xe2x80x94 a powerful military alliance xe2x80x94 is considered an attack on all member countries. Ukraine has wanted to join NATO since 2002, but Russia has objected on grounds that such a move would be a direct threat to its borders.

Chinaxe2x80x99s diplomatic self-interest

Releases from Chinaxe2x80x99s foreign ministry did not describe the relationship with Russia as a kind of alliance. The two countries are major trading partners, with China buying significant amounts of energy products from Russia.

xe2x80x9cChina does not want a formal military alliance with Russia, because it wants to avoid direct involvement in the messy international politics of Moscowxe2x80x99s destabilizing moves in Eastern Europe, and has an xe2x80x98independent foreign policy of peacexe2x80x99 that opposes military conflict and emphasizes the importance of dialogue,xe2x80x9d Eurasia Groupxe2x80x99s Thomas said.

xe2x80x9cRussia is very much the junior partner in the bilateral relationship,xe2x80x9d Thomas said. xe2x80x9cAnd Moscowxe2x80x99s ambition in Ukraine [is] not nearly important enough to Beijing for it to abandon its longstanding opposition to formal alliances in international affairs.xe2x80x9dxc2xa0

While looking out for its own interests, Beijing claims a core principle of xe2x80x9cXi Jinping Thought on Diplomacyxe2x80x9d is xe2x80x9cbuilding a community with a shared future for mankind with a view to defending world peace and promoting common development.xe2x80x9d

Earlier this week, Chinaxe2x80x99s foreign ministry said Xi sent a message of condolence to Biden over the deaths and other destruction from strong tornadoes in the U.S.