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Early Edition: February 16, 2022 – Just Security

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RUSSIA, UKRAINE xe2x80x93 TROOPS AND DIPLOMACY

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President Biden has said that the U.S. has not yet determined whether some Russian military units are moving back from the border of Ukraine and returning to their bases, despite the claims by senior Russian officials that some troops are returning to their garrisons. xe2x80x9cBiden said that Russia had more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine, up significantly from some previous estimates of about 130,000, and noted that xe2x80x98an invasion remains distinctly possible,xe2x80x99xe2x80x9d Shane Harris, Robyn Dixon, Rachel Pannett and Emily Rauhala report for the Washington Post.

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Some Russian troops are moving forward closer to Ukrainexe2x80x99s border, including with medical supplies, and being put into firing positions, sources have said. The U.S. believes that Russia now has all the necessary pieces in place, including 150,000 troops in the region, to launch a swift and brutal invasion of Ukraine, the sources added. Putin had also told his military forces to be ready to go by Wednesday, Feb. 16, but it is still unclear whether he has made a decision to attack his neighbor, the sources told ABC News. Conor Finnegan reports for ABC News.

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The Russian military is continuing to undertake activities that appear designed to prepare for an offensive and thwart any attempt by the United States and NATO to intervene, according to Western officials and analysts. Paul Sonne and Ellen Nakashima report for the Washington Post.

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Ukrainians have expressed caution in response to recent moves that suggest that Moscow may be reducing the tensions. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter yesterday that: xe2x80x9cif a real withdrawal follows these statements, we will believe in the beginning of a real de-escalationxe2x80x9d Sarah Rainsford reports for BBC News.

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U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has expressed concerns that a Russian invasion of Ukraine xe2x80x9ccould still happen.xe2x80x9d Wallace said he did not think that Russian President Vladimir Putin had made the decision whether to attack Ukraine yet. BBC News reports.

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Russia has sent a string of mixed messages on the Ukraine crisis. Putin yesterday during a press conference after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said: xe2x80x9cthere is nothing to comment on here. A decision was made to partially withdraw troops.xe2x80x9d Putin added that Moscow was xe2x80x9cready to follow the negotiation track,xe2x80x9d but that the implementation of Russian demands, including a halt to expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, are xe2x80x9can unconditional priority for us.xe2x80x9d Ann M. Simmons, Yaroslav Trofimov and Catherine Lucey report for the Wall Street Journal.

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Biden during his speech yesterday stressed that the U.S. is not looking for confrontation with Russia and was hoping for a diplomatic resolution. However, he reiterated that if Russia invades Ukraine, the U.S. and allies would respond decisively. He also warned Americans that energy prices could be affected with the prospect of U.S. sanctions on Russia. Ann M. Simmons, Yaroslav Trofimov and Catherine Lucey report for the Wall Street Journal.

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Defense ministers from NATO are taking part in a two-day meeting in Brussels. NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg told the media that NATO is willing to talk if Russia is willing to give diplomacy a chance. xe2x80x9cWe work hard for the best, a peaceful political solution, but we are also prepared for the worst that Russia once again invades Ukraine,xe2x80x9d he said, adding that the Russian troop numbers on the border of Ukraine keep going xe2x80x9cup and up and up.xe2x80x9d BBC News reports.

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Just Security has published an essay by Barry Posen on xe2x80x98Ukraine: Unleashing the Rhetorical Dogs of Warxe2x80x99.

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RUSSIA, UKRAINE xe2x80x93 OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

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Multiple Ukrainian government websites, including the defense ministryxe2x80x99s website and banking systems, were temporarily inaccessible to users yesterday afternoon. It remains unclear who was behind the disruption and the overall intent. The outage was a result of a distributed denial-of-service attack. xe2x80x9cDigital attackers targeted the organizationsxe2x80x99 online services to prevent them from functioning properly, but the intrusion fell well short of any kind of massive cyberattack,xe2x80x9d Jenna Mclaughlin reports for NPR.

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Russian government hackers have likely broadly penetrated Ukrainian military, energy, and other critical computer networks, according to newly declassified U.S. intelligence. The hacks could allow the Russian government to collect intelligence and position themselves to disrupt Ukrainexe2x80x99s networks and systems should Russia launch a military assault, either to support military operations or to sow panic in an attempt to destabilize the country, according to a senior administration official. Ellen Nakashima and Alex Horton report for the Washington Post.

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Biden took pains to ensure that his speech was also directed at Americans. While stressing that the U.S. would not send troops to Ukraine, Biden said that everything the U.S. stood for xe2x80x93 freedom democracy and the right of sovereign nations to decide their destinies xe2x80x93 would be risked by caving to Russia, arguing that American national security depended on resolute defense in Europe to prevent any Russian moves on U.S. allies beyond Ukraine. Stephen Collinson reports for CNN.

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The Senatexe2x80x99s ambitions to sanction Russia have been plagued with flailing negotiations and repeated roadblocks, with the Senate instead this week releasing a symbolic bipartisan statement affirming Ukrainexe2x80x99s sovereignty as they prepare for a week-long recess. Andrew Desiderio reports for POLITICO.

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If Putin attacks, xe2x80x9cRussia must be made to pay a severe price,xe2x80x9d the Senator leaders of both parties wrote in a statement. xe2x80x9cWe are prepared to fully support the immediate imposition of strong, robust, and effective sanctions on Russia, as well as tough restrictions and controls on exports to Russia, and we will urge our allies and partners in Europe and around the world to join us.xe2x80x9d Lisa Mascaro and Farnoush Amiri report for AP.

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China has accused the U.S. of xe2x80x9cplaying up the threat of warfare and creating tension,xe2x80x9d over the Ukraine crisis. xe2x80x9cSuch persistent hyping up and disinformation by some Western countries will create turbulence and uncertainty to the world full of challenges, and intensify distress and division,xe2x80x9d a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson told reporters. Reuters reports.

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