Categories
Uncategorized

Commentary: Warming Russia-China relations shift balance at time of US vulnerability

Listen to this article

Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
.

b’

NEW HAVEN, Connecticut: Historyxe2x80x99s turning points are rarely evident with great clarity.

But the Feb 4 joint statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping as the Winter Olympics opened in Beijing may be an exception xe2x80x93 signaling a new turning point in a new Cold War.

Advertisement

Triangulation was Americaxe2x80x99s decisive strategic gambit in the first Cold War. Richard Nixonxe2x80x99s rapprochement with China, 50 years ago this month, isolated the former Soviet Union at a time when its economic foundation was starting to crumble.

As Henry Kissinger put it in his opus, On China: xe2x80x9cThe Sino-US rapprochement started as a tactical aspect of the Cold War; it evolved to where it became central to the evolution of the new global order.xe2x80x9d

It took time for the strategy to succeed. But, 17 years later, the Berlin Wall came down and the Soviet Union imploded.

Never one to ignore the lessons of history, China is opting for its own triangulation gambit in a nascent second Cold War. A China-Russia tandem could shift the global balance of power at a time when America is especially vulnerable. This points to a worrisome endgame.

Important hints can be found in the triangulation of the first Cold War. Fearful of the Soviet military threat, the United States countered by embracing China in an economic marriage of convenience.

Advertisement

Never mind that the US-China partnership, which initially provided cheap products for hard-pressed American consumers, has now been shattered by a trade and tech war. The point is that a comparable strategy has now brought China and Russia together.

MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE FOR XI JINPING AND VLADIMIR PUTIN

This new marriage is convenient in both economic and geostrategic terms. Russia has the natural gas that an energy-hungry, coal-dependent, polluted China needs. And China, with its surplus savings, ample foreign capital, and its Belt and Road Initiative, offers Russia added clout to buttress its thinly-veiled territorial ambitions.