Experts predicted the ruble to fall by the end of the year against the dollar
By the end of December, the rate will be in the range of 78-79 rubles per dollar. However, the crisis of March 2020 may recur, when the Russian currency sank to 82 rubles per dollar.
āMassive lockdowns associated with the new coronavirus strain will inevitably overturn the ruble. In this scenario, there is a great risk of a global recession, which will also affect the Russian economy. In this situation, we may well see the ruble at 80+ per dollar, āsaid economist Tatiana Kulikova.
The situation around Ukraine affects theā drawdown āof the ruble against the dollar. āGeopolitics is now actively embedded in the ruble exchange rate. Bloomberg recently published an article about Russia’s impending war with Ukraine. This is an absurd assumption, but in the Western press this issue has not yet been removed from the political agenda. But this topic will inevitably fizzle out, āKulikova believes.
In turn, Vasily Solodkov, Director of the HSE Banking Institute, believes that the policy of the Russian authorities in eastern Ukraine risksā finishing off āthe ruble exchange rate.
āThe concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine is growing. Nobody knows how all this can end. If it flares up again in Donetsk, we will see the dollar exchange rate at the level of 90 rubles and above. In the worst case scenario, the Russian currency may well collapse above 100 rubles. Something similar already happened when Crimea became āoursā, āhe noted.