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October Surprise 2024

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

La NiƱa conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 -February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).* * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.